Monday, October 19, 2015

China data to show further cooing in growth - Nomura

FXStreet (Bali) - Brian Tan, Economist at Nomura Singapore Ltd, expects China data, including Q3 GDP, to show a further cooling in growth.

Key Quotes

"We expect real GDP growth to slow to 6.7% y-o-y in Q3 from 7.0% in Q2, slightly below consensus expectations of 6.8%, largely due to strong headwinds from overcapacity and sluggish investment demand."

"The direct contribution of financial sector output to GDP growth is also likely to lessen from the outsized 1.4pp in Q2."

"With little evidence of growth stabilisation in the official manufacturing PMI (which remains below 50), we expect industrial production growth to moderate in September."

"We also expect fixed asset investment growth to moderate, likely weighed on by lacklustre property investment. However, consumption is likely to remain a bright spot and we expect aboveconsensus growth in retail sales."
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