Tuesday, October 20, 2015

CFTC: Long dollars trimmed on Fed - Rabobank

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank offered the IMM Net Speculators’ positioning as at 13 October 2015.

Key Quotes:

"EUR shorts fell to 80,576 after increasing to 88,810 in the previous week. The EUR bears will be looking for any clues from President Draghi on Thursday that the ECB may expand/extend its asset purchasing programme.

USD longs declined to 38,875 from 45,991 amid growing market expectations that the Fed may delay the lift-off until next year. That said, our Fed’s watcher Philip Marey maintains his view that a hike in December is still possible. Therefore, we prefer to be positioned for a retracement in EUR/USD in the coming months as the ECB is likely to inject more stimulus to reduce the risk of prolonged disinflation and the Fed is still on the path of monetary policy normalization.

GBP shorts increased to 7,527 from 4,533 previously. Given that the BoE is still likely to start raising interest rates before the ECB completes its QE, we prefer to sell into EUR/GBP rallies.

JPY shorts decreased for the fourth consecutive week to 13,832. While traders are the least bearish on the yen since early September, scope for the Japanese currency to appreciate against the majors could be limited as the BoJ may increase QE again this year.

CHF shorts dropped to 2,352 from 3,970 previously. To stem demand for the CHF, the SNB may have to take additional policy action to offset potential measures from the ECB.

Traders are the least bearish on the AUD since July as reflected in further fall in short positions to 33,705 from 40,839 previously on the back of the Fed and rebound in commodities. Similarly to its G10 peers, the CAD has also appreciated against the US dollar with CAD shorts being trimmed from 35,010 to 33,949 (the lowest since July)."
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