Friday, October 2, 2015

AUD/USD downside remains compelling

FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7025 with a high of 0.7080 and a low of 0.6998.

AUD/USD has been pushed back to the downside after penetrating the 200 SMA on the hourly chart, post the key positive data releases from China overnight, but met supply at 0.7080 post stops.

The official China Sep PMI that arrived at 49.8. The non manufacturing for Sep was at 53.4 vs pre 53.4. The Caixin/Markit final PMI came and beat the flash reading of 47.0 and arrived at 47.2.

AUD/USD and Nonfarm Payrolls

We now await the Nonfarm Payrolls. This is likely to be in the 200k mark post a positive ADP report earlier in the week and will leave the door open for the Fed to hike rates before the year is out. Whether that will be October is a close call, and today's ISM manufacturing would not be supportive of such decisions. The ISM came out as a miss vs expectations of 50.6 and came in as 50.2 for September against 51,1 previous.

AUD/USD stays with bearish outlook

The technical outlook remains bearish. We have failed through the 200 SMA and met supply as previously mentioned at highs of 0.7080 resistance. Continued upside failures will bring back the focus to the 0.6905 psychological support and the 0.6774 2004 low.
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