Monday, October 5, 2015

AUD/USD bulls sigh of relief on Nonfarm Payrolls

FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7056 with a high of 0.7060 and a low of 0.7050 in a quiet start to a potentially volatile week ahead.

AUD/USD has been based on the 0.70 handle since late September's trade after the price met supply at 0.7279 on the early September minor recovery from 0.6907. Last week's Nonfarm Payrolls miss will have the bears thinking twice as we approach this week's FOMC minutes as the main event on the calendar for the pair.

At the same time, while China is on holiday's, commodity prices will remain under the spot-light and despite the improvements of late in the prices of metals, the outlook continues to weigh on the commodity currency offering some support to the case for a continuation in the downside of the price in AUD/USD while the RBA remains in wait and see mode.

However, the main focus will stay with the Fed and rate hike timings. While the nonfarm Payrolls is a big set-back, the Fed's big names have made the case for tightening “later this year”, presumably December, as explained by Westpac Global Strategy Group. "But given ongoing market turbulence, there will be no return to the mid-year calm, leaving pricing for December below 50%."

AUD/USD's 0.70 handle intact

Technically, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that in the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA heads higher below the current price, acting as a dynamic intraday support around 0.7030, while the technical indicators are posting tepid advances above their mid-lines, all of which should maintain the downside limited, at least in the short term. "Nevertheless, a break below the 0.7000 level will likely signal a continued decline towards the lower range of 0.6900."
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