Thursday, October 8, 2015

USD/JPY: Bullish triangle pattern emerging?

FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY is well and truly in a long-term consolidation while fundamentals are mixed and not giving investors a decisive clue as to where the most direction strength will come from.

Options prefer a bearish scenario while arguments remain for a weaker Yen still, despite the Global uncertainties and the Fed presumably on hold for the foreseeable future.

For arguments by Bank of America Merrill Lynch for a weaker Yen, see here.

The Bank of Japan left their policy unchanged overnight after their two-day meeting while their decision and statement did not provide clues as to what we might expect from them again in Oct 30th. What we did get that was key from a list of take-aways from the statement were as follows:

- Easing is exerting intended effects

- Inflation expectations rising from longer-term view

- BOJ sees economy continuing to recover moderately

- BOJ votes 8-1 to keep monetary base target unchanged

For a full insight to the recent BoJ meeting, see here (BoJ: Little clues on further easing by month-end).

USD/JPY neutral/bullish (Spot 119.93 at S1 below pivot 120.30, still within familiar ranges)

One might expect a bid back onto the 120 handle if history of the recent ranges are anything to go by, but a break of S3 at 119.33 would ring alam bells. Technically, there is no defined pattern on the charts as yet to offer any clues for a possible bias either way, but an ascending triangle could emerge on a bullish pop at the 200 DMA at 120.88 currently giving way to a break of 121.00, completing a bullish triangle.

A break of that level opens up 121.76/79, the late August high and the 61.8% retracement. However, focus is on the downside currently with the recent break of the psychological 120.0 handle. What we really need to see is a breakdown to the 118.33 March low en-route to the 2012-2015 116.62 uptrend to confirm a strong bearish trend again.

For a full insight to the recent BoJ meeting, see here (BoJ: Little clues on further easing by month-end).
For more information, read our latest forex news.

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