Saturday, October 17, 2015

USD/CAD: key events coming up, BoC - TDS

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities noted the forthcoming key events for Canada next week.

Key Quotes:

"Canada Federal Election (19 Oct): The latest poll tracker for the federal election (October 19) shows the Liberal party in the lead with 36% support while the Conservatives trail at 30% and the NDP sits at 24%. The emergence of a traditional two-way race reduces some of the uncertainty that had existed earlier in the campaign when the NDP led in the polls. A seat projection shows the Liberals in the lead but short of forming a majority government. As a result, the Liberals will need the support of either the NDP or the Conservatives. While a formal coalition remains unlikely, there is more common ground between the Liberals and the NDP to establish an informal coalition. We view the uncertainty of a change in government and greater political risk with a minority government as CAD negative, though the wider trend in USD weakness is expected to dominate. A full overview of the election can be found here.

2. Bank of Canada Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Report (21 Oct): The Canadian economy has evolved slightly better than the BoC expected in their July Report, so Wednesday’s interest rate decision and MPR are unlikely to bear any major surprises, and the MPR is likely to repeat many of the same messages from July. Generally speaking, a recovery in US demand growth is helping offset the adverse effects from low oil prices as weaker terms of trade work their way through the Canadian economy. Unless we see a major downgrade to US growth prospects or another leg down in oil and gas investment in the coming months, we see the Bank of Canada on hold until 2017H2."
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