Saturday, October 17, 2015

US data recap, a mixed bag - ING

FXStreet (Guatemala) - James Knightley, analyst at ING explained today's US data so far.

Key Quotes:

"Today’s US economic data has been a bit of a mixed bag with industrial production falling 0.2%MoM, in line with expectations, although there was a three tenths of a percentage point upward revision to August’s figure(to -0.1% from -0.4%MoM). Still, in aggregate, output is only up 0.4%YoY. Mining remains the main drag given the plunge in oil prices has resulted in a steep drilling decline while dollar strength and weak external demand are contributors to manufacturing softness.

However, there was better news elsewhere with University of Michigan consumer confidence for October rising to 92.1 from 87.2, which was above the 89.0 consensus expectation. Both the current conditions and expectations components rose, which suggests that households are in decent financial shape and are willing to spend as we head towards holiday season.

There was also some reasonably encouraging news from the Job openings data. While the actual number of new job openings fell, the trend is still upwards and the hiring rate and quit rate numbers suggest that job turnover is rising, which typically bodes well for higher wage growth. The key question is whether we see this materialise in the employment reports in the next couple of months. If not, the Fed doves will win the argument and there won’t be a Fed rate hike this year."
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