RBA may hold until Feb 2016 to cut rates - ANZ

FXStreet (Bali) - According to ANZ, amid decreasing housing sentiment in Sydney, the RBA will wait until February to cut rates, with the case for a rate cut before Christmas only strengthened if the other major banks follow Westpac’s lead by increasing the mortgage rate.

Key Quotes

"Sydney auction clearance rates eased further on the weekend with media reporting a preliminary auction clearance rate of 67% (according to RP Data CoreLogic)."

"While still relatively elevated, clearance rates are well down from a peak around 90% earlier this year. This is another signal that the heat is coming out of the Sydney housing market."

"Following Westpac’s decision last week to raise interest rates on both owneroccupier and investor loans, the market has flirted with the possibility that the RBA could cut rates in November."

"Our expectation is still that the RBA will wait until February, but if the other major banks follow Westpac’s lead, the case for a rate cut before Christmas strengthens."

"The Financial Stability Review last week highlighted that the Bank is waiting on further data to be sure macro prudential and other policy measures to slow investor lending and bolster lending standards are playing out as required."

"Further, recent commentary from the RBA, including Deputy Governor Phillip Lowe last week, has been of the ‘glass half full’ variety. It is unlikely in our view that such positive comments from an RBA official would be followed by a rate cut 21 days later."
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