Monday, October 12, 2015

NZD: Bullish bias for the week – Westpac

FXStreet (Delhi) – Imre Speizer, Senior Markets Strategist at Westpac, suggests that we have flipped to a bullish bias for the week ahead and if today's break above 0.6455 is sustained, then the 0.6600 area should be targeted.

Key Quotes

“NZ data has been upbeat lately, notably dairy prices which look set to rise again at this week's GDT auction. In addition, US data has not been compelling enough for markets to price in a rate hike this year.”

“We are bullish for the week and month ahead, targeting 0.6900. The rebound in dairy prices (63% since the August low) and still strong migration and housing should keep the RBNZ on hold on 29 Oct. Moreover, NZD/USD is currently 7% below fair value implied by commodities, interest rates and risk sentiment, probably because the US dollar is overvalued.”

“The NZ data calendar livens up this week, with most attention likely to be focused on the Q3 CPI report on Friday. Our economists expect a quarterly pace of 0.1% and an annual pace of 0.2% (matching the RBNZ’s forecast), probably marking the low point in the cycle. Other releases include REINZ house sales (Mon), food prices (Tue), manufacturing PMI and consumer confidence (Thu).”

3 months ahead: Multi-month, we see the NZ economy slowing, the RBNZ easing in December, and the Fed possibly tightening during the next few months, taking NZD/USD to 0.62. That said, the timing of a Fed move remains quite uncertain.”

1 year ahead: Our 1 year ahead forecast is 0.62, based partly on the OCR being cut to 2.0%.”
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