Monday, October 19, 2015

Key events for the week ahead: ECB, BOC eyed - Nomura

FXStreet (Bali) - David Fritz, Global FX Strategist at Nomura, breaks down the week ahead, providing valuable insights on the most relevant economic events, which will include the ECB and BOC monetary policy decisions.

Key Quotes

"Other than China's data, in terms of central bank meetings this week, there will be the ECB and the BoC. We expect both to remain on hold, although the press conferences and communiques may yield clues on future monetary policy."

"This is particularly noteworthy for the ECB. While we do not expect the ECB to make changes to its QE policy yet, its language is likely to remain dovish and indicate that it is ready to be flexible in using the tools available."

"Our baseline remains that the ECB will extend QE on 10 March 2016 from “September 2016, or beyond” to “March 2017, or beyond” (with risks of an earlier move in December)."

"As for the BoC, it is more likely to maintain a neutral stance, and the key focus in the communique will be on whether it has grown more concerned about global growth (and US growth in particular)."

"In terms of data, the UK and Canada report retail sales, Canada reports inflation figures, and the Eurozone releases preliminary PMI data. From the US, we will get housing data for September. For UK retail sales, we expect volumes to rise by only 0.1% m-o-m in September, which would indicate at least a temporary slowdown from the high growth trend."

"In terms of Eurozone PMIs, we expect the euro area composite PMI to edge down in October, due to softer readings in both the services and manufacturing sectors, the latter in particular reflecting weaker global growth conditions."

"Still the euro area economy has shown resilience thus far to external shocks. For US housing data, we have seen underlying momentum continue to improve and we are constructive on housing activity in the medium term, largely based on: 1) pent-up demand from a depressed pace of household formation; and 2) improvement in the employment and income outlook for younger workers."

"However, our forecasts are still below consensus currently for housing starts, building permits, and existing home sales for next week."

"While there is a lineup of Fed speakers next week, there is unlikely to be much new this week. Yellen is on the calendar, but only gives introductory remarks. More interesting might be Powell’s panel on Wednesday on bond market liquidity given concerns about end of year liquidity, and implications for a lower probability of Fed liftoff."
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