Monday, October 5, 2015

EUR/USD: bulls eye the 20 DMA and post NFP highs

FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/USD is flat at the start of what may be a volatile week ahead. The Nonfarm Payrolls was a shocker and will leave doubts over whether the Fed can justify a rate hike before the year is out. This leaves the euro in a less negative light, but doesn't change anything in respect to the EZ's own dire economic outlook while expectations are for Draghi to act accordingly when appropriate.

"With continuing high unemployment (unchanged at 11.0% in August) guaranteeing little nominal wage pressure, core inflation looks set to remain well below the ECB's comfort zone of just below 2% in the foreseeable future. Talk of QE expansion and extension will therefore remain with us for some time," explained Teunis Brosens, analyst at ING Bank.

EUR/USD and a look into the ECB

This week, we will have an account of the September Monetary Policy Meeting and analysts at TD Securities noted that there could be additional insights into the ECB's interpretation of EM and financial market uncertainty at the time of their September meeting. "In particular, any views by the GC on the persistence of these effects on euro area inflation will be key to any additional easing in policy measures in 2015."

EUR/USD upside targets

Technically, on further upside, the 55 day has been a supporting level, trading at .1178 today, while the pair remains trading above the 200 DMA at 1.1161. 1.1240 has seen some temporary spikes penetrate it being the 20 DMA with highs of 1.1318 at the start of the month being achieved on the Nonfarm Payrolls shocker. Above here, resistance may come between the 1.1332/73 level being the early and mid-September highs ahead of 1.1440/68 which is where the May, June and current September highs were printed.
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