Monday, October 19, 2015

China Q3 GDP preview: What to expect in AUD/USD?

FXStreet (Guatemala) - The major highlight at the start of this week comes in the form of Chinese GDP for Q3. This report is feared to be the slowest Chinese growth rate since the depths of the financial crisis following the crash of the world's stock market back in August and eyes will be all over this report coming out of the world's second largest economy.

How bad are things presently in China?

However, there has been a slightly better sentiment around China of late with a consensus that the stock market rout and subsequent panic that roiled the world's financial markets over the summer may well have been overblown. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, conducted a survey this month and only 39 percent of fund managers queried considered China the biggest "tail risk," down significantly from 54 percent a month earlier. But of course, there are still high concerns over the economy that relies too heavily on investment with long term negative implications for the rest of the world in years to come.

China GDP expectations

Meanwhile, a result below the previous result of 7% growth YoY between the months of July to September will be the worst result since 2009 and could lead to further risk aversion at the start of this week.

Also to note:

(A new study published by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies recalculated China's nominal GDP for 2008 and found the economy was between 13 to 16 per cent larger than officially stated at the time, mainly because earlier estimates did not take the services sector fully into account, generating a little optimism in the broader Chinese economy).

AUD/USD Key levels to monitor

While in a bearish slope below the 200 DMA at 0.7581, AUD/USD has been subdued on recent business on the 0.73 handle and is facing strong headwinds on attempts of the 0.7385 Fib retracement below the stringer levels of 0.7402 2014-2015 downtrend and August highs of and the 0.7439 August high.

Having dropped the 0.73 handle, the price has been forced below the key 200 SMA on the hourly chart with the 20 SMA on an alarming trajectory as it penetrates below the 200 SMA in a bearish set-up. A break of the 0.72 handle puts the bears well and truly back into control targeting the 55 DMA at 0.7179 ahead of 0.7146 and the 20 DMA. A break of here opens the October lows and start of the short-term recovery from 0.7000.
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