Wednesday, October 7, 2015

BoJ preview: What to expect in USD/JPY?

FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY has been trading within familiar ranges for as long as the hourly chart goes back on the screen and without scrolling it back beyond September's business. A great deal of emphasis has been on the US and the Fed. Today, even for an hour or so, it is going to be about the BoJ.

BoJ anyone's guess, ( a slight bias to hold)

Today sees the outcome of the BoJ's two-day meeting on monetary policy. The bias for the BoJ to hold comes with a) timings b) exchange rate c) data.

BoJ on data

Of late, the data has not been a mile away from where the BoJ is satisfied with the recent Tankan survey a mixed one, with both good and poor news. The good news came in the non-manufacturing sector with business sentiment improving. Whereas the poor data stayed with manufacturing business sector worsening. Inflationary data and a drop in the core CPI can be blamed on the price of energy while core CPI that excludes energy was up y/y 1.1% and thus the BoJ's 2% target for inflation for 2016 is still a possibility.

USD/JPY exchange rate

The exchange rate remains in at a comfortable level for the BoJ while exports benefit from a weaker Yen as do earnings at many companies boosting stock prices, but the Yen is not too weak that the economy could be hurt by driving up the import costs that pushes up the prices of imported food and energy, hurting consumers and small businesses.

BoJ timings

Lastly, the BoJ have a further meeting at the end of the month along with its Outlook report where there is more time for further instability in Global markets.

Key areas to monitor USD/JPY

Ahead of the outcome of the BoJ today, the areas to monitor for USD/JPY remain with the two-month ranges since the breakdown of 20th August business. The key resistance stays with the 200 DMA at 120.88 today, a break of which would then bring in tough resistance at 121.76/79, the late August high and the 61.8% retracement.

A bearish cross-over between the 20 SMA and 50 SMA on the hourly chart that appears to be emerging is bearish signal worth monitoring, despite the divergence between the MACD and momentum indicators turning less negative. The key breakdown levels to the downside come as 118.33 March low en-route to the 2012-2015 116.62 uptrend. However, 120.00 is a relatively strong psychological supporting area for the time being.
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