Saturday, October 3, 2015

AUD/USD ripe for a break below 0.7000?

FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7029 with a high of 0.7077 and a low of 0.7002.

AUD/USD had rallied strongly on the release of the dismal Nonfarm Payrolls data when the pair ran up from aforementioned lows, through the 200 sma and 50 sma on the hourly time frame and until meeting supply and settling back 20 pips to consolidate the week's price action.

Earlier in the week, the pair got a boost from positive Chinese surprises in data but struggled at 0.7080 and has remained within a tight range on the 0.70 handle since.

Rob Carnell, analyst at ING Bank explained that a uniformly dreadful September US labour report effectively buries any hopes for an October rate hike from the Fed, with the headline payrolls rising by only 142K, and the August data being revised lower (not higher as has been in every August release since 1999) to 136K from an initial 173K. "No rate hike this month then it seems. But it raises doubts too about the probability of a December hike, unless the Fed changes the basis upon which it decided policy rates."

AUD/USD bearish bias

Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained, "We continue to target the September low at 0.6940. Below it lies the 0.6905 recent low and also the 0.6774 2004 low. We note the 13 count on the 240 minute chart and may see a small rebound very near term, but this should ideally remain capped by 0.7050/75."
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