Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Asia stays risk-averse as China CPI disappoints, UK jobs report eyed

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The broader market sentiment continues to worsen for the second straight session, with the underlying reason being the same – poor economic news from China. The Japanese yen along with gold continues to garner support on global risk-off approach. While the Antipodes are trading mixed with the Kiwi outperforming on the back of Fonterra’s upward revising by S&P.

Key headlines in Asia

New Zealand: S&P revises Fonterra outlook to stable from negative

China's Sept CPI below expectations

RBNZ Wheeler speech review: Rates on hold this month - ANZ

Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD

The release of the Chinese data once again spooked the markets and crushed the sentiment badly, this time the softer price pressures print. Safe-havens were better-bid as risk-off dominated, with USD/JPY --0.05% lower near 119.70 region. While EUR/USD gained 0.08% to trade near 1.14 handle and gold reached fresh multi-month highs at $ 1174.50, recording a 0.75% gain on the day.

The Kiwi emerged the best performer across the board, unperturbed by the Chinese data-led risk-off sentiment. The NZD/USD pair rebounded sharply higher largely backed by the news that S&P upwardly revised New Zealand’s dairy giant Fonterra’s outlook to ‘stable’ from credit watch ‘negative.’

While AUD/USD extends the previous slide and trades -0.21% lower at 0.7228, bouncing-off a brief dip below 0.72 barrier. Poor Chinese inflation figures added to the recent downbeat trade data and thus weighed heavily on the Aussie. China is Australia’s and New Zealand’s top trading partner.

Meanwhile the Asian indices dived further in the red after the Chinese CPI release, with the Nikkei losing the most, down -1.70% to 17,924. Australia’s S&P ASX index drops -0.14% to 5,195. While the Shanghai Composite index trades muted at 3,295. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng drops to 22,494, losing -0.47%.

Heading into Europe & the US

The UK employment data is expected to remain the main highlight in an otherwise data-thin European session ahead. While the 2nd-tier data in the form of industrial figures from the Euro zone will be also watched.

Industrial output in the euro zone is seen as declining 0.5% m/m in August, having booked the 0.6% growth in July, while growing 1.8% y/y, compared to a 1.9% gain recorded previously.

While the ONS will release the UK labor market figures for August, with markets expecting the jobless rate to have remained unchanged at 5.5%. Regular earnings, those stripped of bonus payments, are seen rising 3% in August, from 2.9% a month before.

Looking towards the North American session, we have a set of crucial economic data releases from the US – the retail sales and PPI. For retail sales, markets are expecting a 0.2% increase m/m, while the core figure is expected to drop -0.1% in Sept.

EUR/USD Technicals

Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained, “Technically, the short term picture for the pair is neutral-to-bullish, given that the 1 hour chart shows that the price is a few pips above its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators lack clear directional strength above their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, however, the upside remains favored, as the 20 SMA heads strongly higher around 1.1350, whilst the Momentum indicator is aiming to bounce from its mid-line and the RSI indicator consolidates near overbought levels.”
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