tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11136014077920295802024-01-23T16:39:17.321+08:00Forex Analysis by FX VIBESderekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.comBlogger2897125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-71315205904418510812015-11-25T18:20:00.005+08:002015-11-25T18:20:51.035+08:00German IFO surprised to the upside – SwissquoteFXStreet (Delhi) – Arnaud Masset, Market Analyst at Swissquote Bank, notes that the German IFO business climate index surprisingly jumped to 109 in November, the highest level since July 2014, from 108.2 in the previous month.<br />
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<strong>Key Quotes</strong><br />
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“The German economy seems to have weathered the end of summer slump pretty well and the outlook looks great especially given the fact that the weaker euro will provide an extra boost to the economy.”<br />
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“The single currency recovered in the Asian session and rose 0.32% versus the dollar, bringing EUR/USD back above the 1.0650 threshold. However, we still believe that there is further room for euro depreciation.”<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-43164153065093733002015-11-25T18:20:00.003+08:002015-11-25T18:20:50.458+08:00USD/JPY catches fresh bid tone, revisits daily highFXStreet (Mumbai) - <strong><a href="http://ift.tt/1Hf1YBS">USD/JPY</a></strong> continues to move back and forth within today’s trading range, having found strong support near Nov 16 lows, as persisting risk-conditions dictate the moves in the major.<br />
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<strong>USD/JPY jumps off 122.26 once again</strong><br />
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Currently, the USD/JPY pair trades flat at 122.50, retesting daily highs posted at 122.54. The major recovered losses and now extends recovery from weekly lows, as the USD bulls halted its correction and jumped back into the bids across the board. The USD index bounced-off 99.43 lows and climbed to 99.72, trading modestly flat.<br />
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Moreover, a major shift in risk conditions after the European stocks opened on a firmer note and subsequently extended higher, also diminished the bids for the safe-haven JPY. While analysts believe the recent issues between Turkey and Russia are unlikely to escalate into a "hot" conflict and hence, risk-appetite returns in markets.<br />
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In the day ahead, the major is likely to take fresh cues from a batch of US economic releases for fresh direction on the USD.<br />
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<strong>USD/JPY Technical levels to watch</strong><br />
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The prices trade near session lows and finds immediate support at 122.20 (Nov 16 Low) below which 121.70 (200-DMA) would be tested. To the topside, the immediate resistance is located at 122.59 (daily pivot). A break above the last, the major could test 122.70 (5 & 20-DMA).<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-8073632285876562962015-11-25T18:20:00.001+08:002015-11-25T18:20:49.835+08:00EUR/USD: Offered at hourly 200-MA, drops to hourly 100-MAFXStreet (Mumbai) - The <strong><a href="http://ift.tt/1n32UhQ">EUR/USD</a></strong> pair ran into offers around the hourly 200-MA at 1.0675 and fell back to 1.0642 (hourly 100-MA) as the European stocks extended early gains.<br />
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<strong>Trades at hourly 50-MA</strong><br />
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The pair is now trading around the hourly 50-MA located at 1.0642 levels. The European markets opened with a mild positive tone, but went on to extend gains to trade almost 0.50% points higher on the day.<br />
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Consequently, the short-covering in the EUR ran out of steam, making way for fresh offers. The traders now await the US personal spending and corporate spending (durable goods orders) data.<br />
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<strong>EUR/USD Technical Levels</strong><br />
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The pair could extend the drop to 1.06 levels in case the immediate support at 1.0642 (hourly 50-MA) is breached. Below 1.06, the doors will be open for a slide to 1.0520-1.05 handle. On the higher side, hourly 100-MA and hourly 200-MA at 1.0661 and 1.0675 would offer resistance, above which major hurdle is seen at 1.07.<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-90517673779017863512015-11-25T17:20:00.009+08:002015-11-25T17:20:47.222+08:00EUR/CHF off highs, back to 1.0830FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After reaching session highs near 1.0850, <strong><a href="http://ift.tt/1havVTa">EUR/CHF</a></strong> has now returned to the 1.0835/30 band.<br />
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<strong>EUR/CHF indifferent on Swiss data</strong><br />
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The cross has found decent support around the 1.0800 area on Tuesday, managing to gather some traction and recover ground lost after recent highs north of the 1.0900 handle recorded last week.<br />
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On the data front, Switzerland’s Consumption Indicator tracked by UBS came in at 1.60 for the month of October, surpassing September’s 1.56.<br />
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<strong>EUR/CHF levels to consider</strong><br />
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At the moment the cross is up 0.14% at 1.0830 and a surpass of 1.0930 (high Oct.30) would aim for 1.0986 (high Oct.2) and then 1.1049 (high Sep.11). On the other hand, the next support lines up at 1.0795 (100-day sma) followed by 1.0703 (low Aug.20) and finally 1.0501 (23.6% Fibo of 0.8695-1.1049).<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-37094097497296768592015-11-25T17:20:00.007+08:002015-11-25T17:20:46.544+08:00WTI back in the red near $ 42.50, EIA report eyedFXStreet (Mumbai) - The <strong><a href="http://ift.tt/1hnYvAE">US oil</a></strong> reversed a two-day rally and slipped back in the negative territory as the Mid-East conflict worries were set aside by resurfacing supply glut woes as focus shifts towards the weekly EIA report.<br />
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<strong>WTI retreats from 2-week highs</strong><br />
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Currently, WTI trades 0.90% lower at 42.50, failing to resist 43 barrier. Oil prices snapped previous rally and turned lower on Wednesday as rising crude supplies as reflected by the latest API stockpiles report continue to weigh on investors’ sentiment.<br />
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US crude inventories rose by 2.6 million barrels to 488.3 million in the week to November 20, the API reported on Tuesday, against expectations of a 1.2 million barrel rise.<br />
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Moreover, concerns regarding Middle-East conflicts on Russian jet shot down by Turkey, appear to have eased a bit as attention now shifts to the upcoming inventory report from the EIA.<br />
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Oil rallied on Tuesday after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane near the Syrian border on air-space violation issue, which heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.<br />
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<strong>WTI Oil Technical Levels</strong><br />
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WTI oil has an immediate resistance which stands at 43.46 (Nov 24 high) above which gains could be extended to 44 (round number). While to the downside, the immediate support is at 41.54 (Nov 12 Low), below which the prices could drop to 40.41 (Nov 23 Low).<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-5442096547990647622015-11-25T17:20:00.005+08:002015-11-25T17:20:45.823+08:00Gold offered at Tuesday’s highFXStreet (Mumbai) - <strong><a href="http://ift.tt/1D06zDY">Gold</a></strong> prices ran into offers at Tuesday’s high of USD 1081/Oz levels and threatens to dip into losses as the European equities turned higher.<br />
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<strong>Markets showing resilience</strong><br />
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The US markets rebounded after the weak start and the European equities appear to follow suit. The pan-European Euro stoxx 50 advanced 0.4%, thereby weighing over the safe haven metal. The turn around in the equities marked resilience to Fed rate hike bets and geopolitical uncertainty.<br />
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Consequently, Gold surrendered gains in Europe to trade largely unchanged around USD 1075-1076/Oz levels. the metal traders now await the US data – durable goods, personal spending.<br />
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<strong>Gold Technical Levels</strong><br />
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The pair currently hovers around USD 1076.17 (hourly 50-MA). A failure to sustain above the same would expose 1069.12 (previous day’s low). On the other hand, the prices could once again face resistance at 1081 (Tuesday’s high).<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-90345673699550025662015-11-25T17:20:00.003+08:002015-11-25T17:20:45.066+08:00EUR/USD: Retreats to 10-DMA as European stocks open elevatedFXStreet (Mumbai) - A renewed rally in <strong><a href="http://ift.tt/1n32UhQ">EUR/USD</a></strong> lost steam just few pips shy of 1.07 barrier after the European markets opened upbeat, although Middle-East geo-political concerns still remain in focus amid a data-quiet EUR calendar.<br />
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<strong>EUR/USD hovering around daily R1</strong><br />
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Currently, the EUR/USD pair trades 0.25% higher at 1.0669, easing-off fresh three-day highs recorded at 1.0689 ahead of Europe open. The main currency pair trims gains and slips back below hourly 200-SMA now placed at 1.0679, as the European stocks shrugged-off weakness seen in Asian indices and trades higher on turnaround in risk-conditions in Europe.<br />
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The German benchmark, the DAX gains 0.31% while the UK’s FTSE rises 0.70% and the pan-European benchmark, Euro Stoxx 600 advances 0.20%.<br />
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Meanwhile, the US dollar is retracing a part of losses incurred since yesterday against its major competitors amid persisting weakness in the US treasury yields. Looking ahead, attention now shifts towards the US macro releases, including the durable goods and Core PCE index, in absence of economic data during the European session.<br />
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<strong>EUR/USD Technical Levels</strong><br />
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The pair trades firmly above 1.06 handle, with the immediate support seen at 1.0642 (1h 50-SMA). Selling pressure will intensify below the last, dragging the pair towards 1.0600/1.0593 (round number/ Nov 23 Low). While to the upside the next hurdle in sight is located at 1.0689 (daily high) and from there to 1.0700 (round number).<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-49706900818566898882015-11-25T17:20:00.001+08:002015-11-25T17:20:44.467+08:00EUR/USD forecast: looks to US data – Commerzbank and Societe GeneraleFXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency has returned to the 1.0660 area after another failed attempt to clinch the 1.0700 handle, all ahead key data releases across the pond.<br />
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Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair’s “divergence of the daily RSI is more pronounced and the market is starting to erode the accelerated downtrend at 1.0663 today. Above here we have the 20 day ma at 1.0778 and the recent high and Fibo at 1.0830/57 is likely to cap”.<br />
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In addition, FX Strategist Kit Juckes at Societe Generale suggested “<strong><a href="http://ift.tt/1n32UhQ">EUR/USD</a></strong> needs to break back above 107:50 to trigger any alarm for chart-drawers, and more likely is that it meanders in a 1.06-1.0750 range for now as positions are reduced”.<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-34078726718410920122015-11-25T16:21:00.019+08:002015-11-25T16:21:48.338+08:00GBP/USD finds support at key fib, hovers near 1.51FXStreet (Mumbai) - The <strong><a href="http://ift.tt/1n32Xdq">GBP/USD</a></strong> surrendered part of its gains in early Europe to trade around 1.5095 levels ahead of the UK autumn statement and spending review.<br />
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<strong>Supported by Key fib</strong><br />
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The pair found support at 1.5087 (61.8% of Apr-Jun rally), although the bounceback has been anything but strong as the cable continues to hover at 1.5090-1.5095. The immediate focus now is on the forward-looking economic comments at the UK autumn statement release.<br />
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Later today, the weekly jobless claims, personal spending and income report, and durable goods orders number could influence the Fed rate hike bets and impact overall demand for the US dollars.<br />
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<strong>GBP/USD Technical Levels</strong><br />
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The immediate resistance is seen at 1.5117 (hourly 50-MA)-1.5120 (23.6% of 1.5336-1.5053), above which the spot could re-test 1.5161 (38.2% of 1.5336-1.5053). On the other hand, a failure to sustain above 1.5087 would open doors for a re-test of 1.5053 (previous day’s low).<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-25949720361964630572015-11-25T16:21:00.017+08:002015-11-25T16:21:47.887+08:00FX option expiries for Wednesday's NY cutFXStreet (Bali) - Find below the FX option expiries for Wednesday's NY cut 1000ET, via DTCC.<br />
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- EUR/USD: 1.0500(E1.1bn), 1.0525(E344mn), 1.0550(E1.51bn), 1.0600(E1.85bn), 1.0650(E702mn), 1.0700(E1.62bn), 1.0750-55(E668mn), 1.0800(E2.62bn), 1.0820-30(E1.04bn), 1.0850(E463mn)<br />
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- USD/JPY: 121.00-10($2.15bn), 121.75($400mn), 122.00($1.44bn), 123.00($1.72bn), 123.50($1.48bn), 123.75($500mn), 124.00($1.8bn), Y125.00($675mn)<br />
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- AUD/USD: 0.7095-0.7100(A$340mn), 0.7300(A$858mn)<br />
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- EUR/JPY Y131.65(E320mn)<br />
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- GBP/USD: $1.4980(Gbp543mn):<br />
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- EUR/GBP: 0.7100(E309mn), 0.7150(E201mn)<br />
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- USD/CAD: 1.3185-90($490mn), 1.3275($234mn), 1.3285-90(A$488mn), 1.3305($290mn)<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-26315521516615050402015-11-25T16:21:00.015+08:002015-11-25T16:21:47.347+08:00USD/JPY and treasury yields weaken, risk-off intact?FXStreet (Mumbai) - The <strong><a href="http://ift.tt/1Hf1YBS">USD/JPY</a></strong> fell in Asia and remains below 122.41 (23.6% of 118.06-123.76), while the treasury yields weakened moderately.<br />
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<strong>Risk-off ahead?</strong><br />
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The move indicates the risk-off mood might prevail in the European session. The major European equity index futures are trading flat to negative, while the Asian markets traded mixed.<br />
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However, the traditional safe havens are on the rise in early Europe. Even gold prices inched higher to near USD 1180/Oz levels, while the 10-year treasury yield dripped almost 2 basis points. It remains to be seen if the European equities turn higher or follow the safe havens and suffer losses.<br />
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<strong>USD/JPY Technical Levels</strong><br />
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The pair fell to a fresh session low of 122.26. The immediate resistance is seen at 122.87 (10-DMA) and 123.00, above which it may test offers at 123.26 (Nov 23 high). On the other side, support is seen at 122.22 (Nov 16 low) and 121.76 (100-DMA).<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-35419825480156406862015-11-25T16:21:00.013+08:002015-11-25T16:21:46.862+08:00RBA governor Stevens “happened to agree with” the reasons for holding rate steadyFXStreet (Mumbai) - Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens yesterday signalled that interest rates will stay on hold at the central bank’s meeting on 2nd December. He said he agreed with the reasons for leaving the rates steady. While taking a decision on rate cuts, he said he will be ‘guided by what was effective.’ Steven noted the business cycle will continue and also predicted economic downturns from time to time.<br />
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<strong>RBA can lower rates further if it really helps</strong><br />
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Stevens had to respond to the question why the central bank had not slashed rates again even though the economy was not growing as expected and inflation was low. The banks did not slash rates probably because it thought the economy was picking up. It is also possible that the bank refrained from slashing rates further as it thought it would hurt the incomes of retirees who lived off interest.<br />
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“How to make growth better?” is what Governor Stevens asks. He admitted on way to stimulate growth is by lowering rates. He said he would be “content” to lower rates further if it really helped. He however questions whether cutting rates is the best solution that the economy can come up with at any particular time. He has warned that cutting rates now would not yeild the kind of benefits that it used to provide to stimulate the economy when rates were cut from very high levels in the 1990s.<br />
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He also believes in considering an alternative method to boost growth. “…may be that you can make it better most effectively by articulating a case for stability, playing to the positive things that are happening, not smashing the savers over the head further, if the relative effect of that stimulating is not as great as it used to be”, he said.<br />
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Business economists surveyed at the conference expect the central bank to leave its cash rate steady at 2 per cent in 2016 and lift it only when economy picks up in 2017.<br />
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<strong>Growth will pick up when effect of decline in mining investment ebbs</strong><br />
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The central bank lowered its forecast for inflation a little. It was noted that the effects of a decline in the exchange rate are taking a little longer that expected to be impactful. Also, slow wage growth domestic costs to pick up slowly. Steven admitted that it is difficult for a central bank alone to create inflation, when other powerful forces are at work.<br />
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Governor Stevens is of the opinion that as the impact of the decline in mining investment begins to wear out, and the effects of assumed low levels of interest rates and the exchange rate continue to increase, growth will likely pick up.<br />
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Business surveys have indicated that firms believe conditions to be above their long-term average in some key sectors. Firms have also stepped up their hiring. Job vacancies have been increasing; so has labour force participation. Unemployment rate has held stable. Steven feels that these factors have supported the income growth while the effects of the terms of trade decline wore itself out.<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-25173823092661134252015-11-25T16:21:00.011+08:002015-11-25T16:21:46.296+08:00EUR/USD in session highs, 1.07 closerFXStreet (Edinburgh) - The buying interest is now picking up pace around the single currency, helping <strong><a href="http://ift.tt/1n32UhQ">EUR/USD</a></strong> to clinch fresh highs in the 1.0690 area.<br />
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<strong>EUR/USD stronger ahead of US data</strong><br />
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The pair is up more than a big-figure since recent lows in the 1.0590 area, bolstered by a softer tone in the greenback after being rejected once again from key resistance levels.<br />
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Absent data releases in Euroland today, market participants will look to the heavy US calendar for cues on the price action, as Initial Claims, PCE, Durable Goods Orders will take centre stage later in the NA session.<br />
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<strong>EUR/USD levels to watch</strong><br />
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As of writing the pair is up 0.35% at 1.0683 with the next hurdle at 1.0805 (23.6% Fibo of 1.1496-1.0591) ahead of 1.0829 (high Nov.12) and finally 1.1058 (200-day sma). On the other hand, a breach of 1.0591 (low Nov.23) would target 1.0519 (low Apr.13) en route to 1.0456 (2015 low Mar.16).<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-63072388530157826262015-11-25T16:21:00.009+08:002015-11-25T16:21:45.679+08:00ECB to temporarily halt QE at the year endFXStreet (Mumbai) - The European Central Bank (ECB) was on the wires providing an advance notice to the markets that it intends to halt its QE program in the last week of December.<br />
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The banks said it will temporarily pause Asset Purchase Programme purchases between 22 Dec - 1 Jan in anticipation of lower market liquidity during this period and may front load purchases and may front load purchases in the prior weeks.<br />
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The APP program will resume as ususal from 4th Jan. The ECB says the move is intended to reduce possible market distortions.<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-56824672514225533762015-11-25T16:21:00.007+08:002015-11-25T16:21:45.080+08:00NZGB 2020 tender preview - WestpacFXStreet (Delhi) – Imre Speizer, Senior Markets Strategist at Westpac, suggests that Thursday’s tender of $200m 2020 NZGBs should be supported by NZ swap spreads at multi-year lows.<br />
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<strong>Key Quotes</strong><br />
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“<strong>Valuations & relative value</strong>: Valuations are supportive. The 2027 swap spread at 7bp is lower than the adjacent 2019 and 2021. Our Nelson-Siegel curve fitting model estimates it is fair to the fitted curve.<br />
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The 2020 swap spread is the cheapest it has been for three years. Swap spreads have fallen sharply in most developed markets, and NZ’s spreads have followed suit. However US and AU swap spreads bounced off record or multi-year lows this week and NZ could do similar during the week ahead. Notably, the 2033 swap spread became negative (-4bp) for the first time in its short history, and this may entice investors given the NZ repo market does not suffer from the distortion in the US. If investors deem the 2033 swap spread too cheap, some of that sentiment may rub off on the 2020.<br />
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<strong>Tender performance</strong>: Recent tender performance of NZGB nominals has been sub-average. The last few 2020 tenders have resulted in a slight increase in tail size, to a still respectable 1.3bp in October.<br />
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<strong>Demand</strong>: Local financial conditions remain bond-supportive: the RBNZ is expected by economists and market pricing to cut the OCR to 2.5% in December. Moreover, markets are now assigning a 20% of further easing to 2.0% next year. Any Fed tightening in December could hinder the performance of NZGBs, although shorter durations may be less affected.<br />
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<strong>Details</strong>: Tender bids close at 2:00pm NZT, with results published from 2:05pm. Settlement is on 1 December.”<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-37931686634096355762015-11-25T16:21:00.005+08:002015-11-25T16:21:44.696+08:00USD/CHF pullback is seen as corrective – CommerzbankFXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the current pullback in the pair should be corrective.<br />
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<strong>Key Quotes</strong><br />
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“<strong><a href="http://ift.tt/1GaD6uc">USD/CHF</a></strong> is losing momentum ahead of the 1.0295 2015 high”.<br />
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“The recent high has yet to be confirmed by the daily RSI and the accelerated uptrend eroded, we would allow for a near term corrective set back”.<br />
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“The Elliott wave count is suggesting that we will see a correction back into the 1.0050/.9940 band ahead of recovery. Dips lower will find initial support at the 1.0122 November 19 low”.<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-61409333089752112172015-11-25T16:21:00.003+08:002015-11-25T16:21:44.115+08:00GBP/JPY is silent around 50% fib levelFXStreet (Mumbai) - The <strong><a href="http://ift.tt/1k1g3pN">GBP/JPY</a></strong> pair is trading comatose just above 184.68 (50% of 180.66-188.70) ahead of the UK autumn statement and spending review.<br />
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<strong>Eyes UK event</strong><br />
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The minor correction in the USD led to an equal move higher in the GBP and JPY against the greenback, hiwhc left the GBP/JPY cross largely unchanged around 184.75.<br />
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The markets now await UK autumn statement, which carries forward looking economic statements. The markets expect Osborne to sound cautious on the UK economy and is expected to announce spending cuts, and boost housing programe.<br />
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<strong>GBP/JPY Technical Levels</strong><br />
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The immediate resistance is seen at 185.00 and 185.47 (hourly 50-MA), above which the gains could be extended to 185.63 (38.2% of 180.66-188.70). On the other side, a failure to sustain above 184.68 (50% of 180.66-188.70) would open doors for a re-test of 184.32 and 183.73 (61.8% of 180.66-188.70).<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-48233907706143813522015-11-25T16:21:00.001+08:002015-11-25T16:21:43.394+08:00EUR/JPY choppy around 130.40FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency is posting meager gains vs. the Japanese yen on Wednesday, with <strong><a href="http://ift.tt/1Ob6O9J">EUR/JPY</a></strong> hovering over the 130.40 area so far.<br />
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<strong>EUR/JPY indifferent to BoJ</strong><br />
<br />
The cross keeps the trade near multi-month lows, unable to gather further traction as significant catalysts remain absent so far.<br />
<br />
Nothing new from the BoJ in its minutes today, with the central bank blaming the decline in energy prices for the current lack of reaction of domestic inflation. The BoJ has also reiterated that it is not considering further stimulus for the time being, broadly in line with market expectations.<br />
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<strong>EUR/JPY significant levels</strong><br />
<br />
The cross is up 0.08% at 130.49 with the next hurdle at 133.23 (high Nov.6) followed by 134.25 (200-day sma) and finally 134.93 (100-day sma). On the other hand, a break below 130.29 (low Nov.23) would expose 130.12 (low Jan.26) and finally 130.00 (psychological level).<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-19881930731967461612015-11-25T15:21:00.021+08:002015-11-25T15:21:33.313+08:00US: Jam packed trading session – Danske BankFXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Danske Bank, we have several important releases in the US today ahead of Thanksgiving on Thursday and Black Friday.<br />
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<strong>Key Quotes</strong><br />
<br />
“Most important is the release of PCE inflation in November. Consensus anticipates that PCE core (the inflation measure FOMC targets) increased 0.1% m/m in October (1.3% y/y). The subdued core inflation is the number one worry for the FOMC as growth remains solid and the labour market continues to tighten.”<br />
<br />
“The slowdown in China and the strong USD weigh on the US manufacturing sector. This is likely to be reflected in the durable goods orders which, however, is quite volatile from month to month.”<br />
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“Also due today in the US is the October report on personal income and spending, preliminary data for Markit PMI services in November, initial jobless claims and final University of Michigan consumer sentiment for November. New home sales in October could also attract attention as the September figure was very weak.”<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-80290754445344382042015-11-25T15:21:00.019+08:002015-11-25T15:21:32.953+08:00US: Hectic day ahead of Thanksgiving - TDSFXStreet (Delhi) – Prashant Newnaha, Rates Strategist at TD Securities, suggests that it will be a very busy day for data as the release dates on several reports have been moved forward in observance of US Thanksgiving.<br />
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<strong>Key Quotes</strong><br />
<br />
“The October data for personal income and outlays and durable goods orders will be the highlights. We are looking for personal spending to accelerate from +0.1% to +0.3% m/m (in line with consensus), supported by a 0.5% monthly gain in personal income (consensus: +0.4%).”<br />
<br />
“Core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred measure of price pressures) is expected to print at +0.1% m/m (in line with consensus), with the year-ago pace of inflation edging higher from +1.3% to +1.4%. We are looking for a firm rebound in durable goods orders at +2.1% m/m thanks to strength in the aerospace component (consensus: +1.6%), though the ex. transport number should still be modestly positive (TD: +0.8% m/m, consensus: +0.3% m/m) which will bode well for business investment.”<br />
<br />
“There will also be a slew of lower-tier releases, including initial jobless claims for the third week of November and the October new home sales data. We are looking for jobless claims to pop higher from 271K to 282K (consensus: 270K) which will see the 4-week moving average rise from 271K to 276K, while we are forecasting a 3.8% rebound in new home sales to 486K (consensus: 500K).”<br />
<br />
“Lastly, we will be watching the U. Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (TD: 92.4, consensus: 93.1) following the very soft reading on the Conference Board’s consumer sentiment measure.”<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-87237944936485605102015-11-25T15:21:00.017+08:002015-11-25T15:21:32.569+08:00NZ: Forward indicators warns of economic slowdown in Kiwi economy – WestpacFXStreet (Delhi) – Imre Speizer, Senior Markets Strategist at Westpac, suggests that the NZ economic data continues to point to the NZ economy ticking along at a respectable, albeit slowed, pace through the middle part of this year.<br />
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<strong>Key Quotes</strong><br />
<br />
“But recent forward looking indicators of activity are not looking nearly as encouraging, and leave us feeling a little more confident in our call for a December rate cut, which we previously viewed as a close call. Furthermore, inflation pressure remains notably absent. This supports our view that the RBNZ will eventually lower the OCR below 2.5%.”<br />
<br />
“Last week’s data (weaker dairy auction, solid retail spending) has caused us to raise our probability of a December cut from 60% to 70%. Yet no matter what happens in December, the inflation outlook remains weak. We’ve recently lowered our December 2015 quarter forecast to -0.2% which leaves us forecasting just 1% inflation for September next year. Consequently, we remain comfortable forecasting further cuts in the OCR.”<br />
<br />
“Our model of short-term NZ economic momentum shows a small rebound from a low level, which is consistent with the slower pace of economic activity we have witnessed lately. Our data pulse model’s reading supports our view that 2yr swap rates and the NZD/USD will fall during the next few months, given the usual lag between the data pulse and markets.”<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-13062752570908028402015-11-25T15:21:00.015+08:002015-11-25T15:21:32.220+08:00Brazil: Selic rates likely to be on hold in today’s meeting - TDSFXStreet (Delhi) – Prashant Newnaha, Rates Strategist at TD Securities, expects the Selic rate to be kept on hold at 14.25% in Brazil.<br />
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<strong>Key Quotes</strong><br />
<br />
“The press statement accompanying the October COPOM meeting repeated the formula “that the maintenance of this basic interest rate level, for a sufficiently long period, is necessary for the convergence of the inflation to the target in the relevant horizon for the monetary policy”. Inflation is continuing to creep up, with November IPCA-15 reaching 10.28% Y/Y, but inflation should start falling next year, if only because of base effects. The DI curve is pricing in a lowish chance of a 25bps hike at today’s meeting, but is continuing to price in large rate hikes further out.”<br />
<br />
“Our central expectation is that 14.25% will represent the high point in the tightening cycle and that rates will start being cut towards the end of next year. However, in the near-term the risk to rates is to the upside.”<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-31985403921328335982015-11-25T15:21:00.013+08:002015-11-25T15:21:31.766+08:00GBP/USD: Recovery halts above 1.51 ahead of UK autumn statementFXStreet (Mumbai) - The <strong><a href="http://ift.tt/1n32Xdq">GBP/USD</a></strong>, at 1.5105, is struggling to extend recovery ahead of the UK autumn statement and spending review due today.<br />
<br />
<strong>Stalls near key fib level</strong><br />
<br />
The momentum stalled in Asia as the pair neared 1.5120 (23.6% of 1.5336-1.5053). Traders would watch out Osborne’s comments over the UK economy. Carney and Co maintained their cautious tone yesterday and markets believe Osborne is likely to follow them today.<br />
<br />
Later in the day, the cable could witness action on the batch of US data – durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims, personal spending and income report.<br />
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<strong>GBP/USD Technical Levels</strong><br />
<br />
The immediate resistance is seen at 1.5117 (hourly 50-MA)-1.5120 (23.6% of 1.5336-1.5053), above which the spot could re-test 1.5161 (38.2% of 1.5336-1.5053). On the other hand, a failure to sustain above 1.51 would open doors for a re-test of 1.5053 (previous day’s low).<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-55623779442798537522015-11-25T15:21:00.011+08:002015-11-25T15:21:31.145+08:00RBNZ: December to be a close call – WestpacFXStreet (Delhi) – Imre Speizer, Senior Markets Strategist at Westpac, suggests that markets have slightly increased the chance the RBNZ will ease by 25bp on 10 December, to 56%, but a full cut is not priced until January 2016.<br />
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<strong>Key Quotes</strong><br />
<br />
“We assess the chance of a December at around 70%.”<br />
<br />
“What could swing the odds of a cut one way or the other ahead of 10 December? There’s a dairy auction on 1 December (a price bounce, currently predicted by futures, would argue towards not cutting), and US payrolls on 27 November (a strong number would push the USD higher and argue towards not cutting).”<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1113601407792029580.post-41961801594489050872015-11-25T15:21:00.009+08:002015-11-25T15:21:30.632+08:00BoJ Minutes: No monetary policy action required for now - TDSFXStreet (Delhi) – Prashant Newnaha, Rates Strategist at TD Securities, notes that the just released BoJ minutes from the Oct 30th meeting indicated that further monetary policy action is not needed for now.<br />
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<strong>Key Quotes</strong><br />
<br />
“The Board believes that low core CPI is temporary and is largely due to the decline in energy prices. That said the Board did acknowledge it is willing to make some adjustments to monetary policy, but the Board gave itself more breathing space to achieve its 2% inflation objective out to the 2nd half of the 2016 fiscal year.”<br />
For more information, read our latest <a href="http://ift.tt/1eZMDaq">forex news</a>.
derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01024946467195304273noreply@blogger.com0